Profit Simulator

Profitability is the only metric that ultimately matters. The Profit Simulator tab gives you a complete unit economics breakdown — product cost, shipping, processing fees, ad cost, net margin — and projects monthly revenue at different daily order volumes. It's the calculator that turns "this product looks cool" into "this product makes $4,200/month at 15 orders/day."

Every cost line is auto-populated from real AliExpress pricing and category benchmarks, so you don't have to manually look up shipping rates or estimate Stripe fees. You just type in your target retail price and the tab recalculates everything live.

Why It Matters

Most product research tools only show you the AliExpress price and call it a day. That's useless. To know if a product is profitable, you need to model the FULL stack of costs: product, shipping, payment processor, platform fees, refunds, and most importantly, customer acquisition cost. The Profit Simulator does all of that in one screen.

What You'll See

• Cost Breakdown — product cost, ePacket shipping, payment processing (~3%), platform fees, estimated CPA
• Margin Calculator — set your retail price and see gross margin, net margin, and profit per unit instantly
• Monthly Projections — revenue + profit at 5, 10, 25, and 50 orders/day
• Pricing Strategies — three suggested price points (aggressive, balanced, premium)
• Ad Benchmarks — typical CPC and CPM for the category, plus break-even ROAS

The Ad Benchmarks section is the secret weapon. Knowing that beauty products average $1.20 CPC while pet products average $0.45 changes which categories you target. The break-even ROAS tells you the minimum return on ad spend you need to not lose money — anything below that and you're paying for the privilege of selling.

How to Use It

1. Open any AliExpress product page.
2. Switch to the Profit tab.
3. Review the auto-populated cost breakdown.
4. Drag the retail price slider to your target price (rule of thumb: 3-5x the AliExpress price for impulse buys).
5. Watch the net margin update — anything below 30% is dangerous, 40%+ is comfortable.
6. Check the monthly projection at 10 orders/day to see if the absolute profit number is worth your time.
7. Compare the three Pricing Strategy cards to choose between volume play vs. premium positioning.
8. Note the break-even ROAS and use it as your minimum target when launching ads.

Real Example

A wireless car charger costs $6.80 on AliExpress with $2.50 ePacket. You set retail to $29.99. The simulator shows: product $6.80 + shipping $2.50 + processing $0.90 + platform $0.30 + estimated CPA $9.00 = $19.50 total cost. Net profit per unit: $10.49 (35% margin). At 15 orders/day that's $4,720/month profit. Break-even ROAS is 1.54, so as long as your ads return more than $1.54 per dollar spent, you're profitable. You launch with a target ROAS of 2.0 for safety.

Pro Tips

• Always model with a HIGHER CPA than the suggested benchmark — ads almost always cost more in week one than the average.
• If net margin is below 25%, walk away. There's no recovery when refund rates spike.
• Use the Premium pricing strategy for products with strong perceived value (LED, beauty, gadgets) and Aggressive for commodities.
• Test the simulator at multiple retail prices to find the price-elasticity sweet spot.

Common Mistakes

• Forgetting to add ad cost in your "profit" calculation — gross margin minus product cost is NOT profit.
• Under-estimating refund rates. Add a 5-8% buffer for refunds and chargebacks on impulse-buy products.
• Setting unrealistic order volumes in projections (50/day from a cold start is fantasy).

Related Guides

• Instant AI Verdict
• Competition Analysis
• Risk Assessment